In September, Jefferies hosted a group of investors in India as part of its annual forum and broader efforts to study the country’s energy transition. Since the last trip two years ago, there were notable shifts across the macro, company, and policy landscape.
India — now the world’s fourth-largest renewables market by capacity, with a record 25 gigawatts added in the past year — is on track to become the second-largest within the next five years.1 While renewables growth has been impressive, several other areas remain in flux. Below are ten key takeaways from companies, policymakers, and experts from the week.
- Acceleration in Renewables Adoption: India’s clean capacity additions over the past two years have exceeded JEFs expectations, with record growth in the first half of 2025 alone. Installed clean capacity now stands at roughly 240 gigawatts — nearly half the 2030 target. Solar and storage are now cheaper than new coal in many states, supported by $3 billion in central and $6 billion in state-level subsidies.
- Clean Energy Manufacturing Ecosystem: Two years ago, companies like Reliance, Adani, and ReNew outlined plans to build clean energy manufacturing facilities. Today, driven by the government’s Approved List of Module Manufacturers (ALMM) policy, India’s capacity has reached around 100 gigawatts. The policy has tightened supply but also created an opportunity to expand manufacturing and capture higher margins. By June 2028, the ALMM is expected to broaden to include ingots and wafers.
- Distribution Companies: The financial health of power distributors was a major concern two years ago, with expectations that policy reform would ease the strain. Conditions have improved but revenue challenges persist, especially as rooftop solar adoption grows.
- Transmission Bottlenecks: The interstate transmission charge waiver has spurred major buildout, but is now being phased out and will end in June 2028. Each reduction raises renewable power costs, which could slow both transmission and capacity expansion—though falling battery prices may soften the blow.
- Rooftop Solar: One area of clean adaptation facing potential challenges is rooftop/residential solar. DISCOMS have seen lost revenue as consumers adopt rooftop solar (a challenge not unique to India).2 3 However, given the aforementioned revenue challenges of DISCOMS and their importance to the overall power system, this could have an outsize impact on the energy transition picture. Further adoption in rural areas remains a challenge as updates to home infrastructure are often required for installations.
- Hard-to-Abate Sectors: While progress in power generation has been remarkable, sectors like steel, cement, aviation, and chemicals remain difficult to decarbonize. India’s rapid industrialization makes these challenges especially pressing.
- Macro Backdrop and Capital Trends: Overall, while a 25x forward PE for MSCI India (ex fin) makes valuation challenging, the equity market backdrop for Indian companies remains positive going forward.
- Record IPO Activity: 2025 is expected to be the second-best year in Indian capital market history, with $18.5 billion in IPO capital raised. Both deal sizes and volumes continue to rise.
- Domestic Investors Rising: More than 55% of anchor IPO allocations now go to domestic investors (up 10 points from two years ago). Market depth and investor appetite remain strong, but supply of large deals is congested.
- Company Updates: During the forum, several companies expressed plans around power (both conventional and green) and related infrastructure.
- Adani Group: Plans to more than double coal-fired capacity within five years while expanding renewable capacity to 50 gigawatts by 2030. Adani Energy Solutions also raised $1 billion for transmission and distribution projects.
- JSW Group: Its $7 billion green steel plant in Maharashtra will transition from natural gas to hydrogen-based production. The company’s GreenEdge brand offers customers steel with verified emission reduction certificates.
- Solar Energy Corp of India (SECI): Cutting-edge tenders combining solar, wind, and storage are enabling gigawatt-scale projects, supported by declining storage costs. Transmission and distribution delays remain a constraint.
- National Green Hydrogen Mission: India’s Green Hydrogen Mission and plans to set up owner operations in this area were prominent two years ago, but talks around this were significantly more muted and absent this year. The overall demand story around green hydrogen has played a role; however, it might also be too soon to see material developments.
- Trade Tensions and Energy Transition: Geopolitical unpredictability has heightened India’s focus on energy self-sufficiency — both in production and manufacturing. Policymakers and companies emphasized balancing competition with cooperation with China as India aims to become a major green tech manufacturer.
India’s role on the global stage continues to grow, with trade developing at breakneck speed. The country’s sustainability and transition strategy is following a similar path, with areas of great strength and others still taking shape. The interplay of these factors makes the strategy one to watch in the coming years.
For more insights from Jefferies’ Sustainability & Transition Team, consult the full report.
- https://www.outlookbusiness.com/planet/industry/india-second-largest-renewable-market-2030-growth ↩︎
- https://csep.org/working-paper/rooftop-solar-a-trade-off-between-consumer-benefit-and-discom-finances/ ↩︎
- https://www.responsiblelending.org/media/widespread-residential-solar-energy-adoption-threatened-industry-sales-and-financing-model ↩︎
