The Jefferies 2025 Private Growth Conference brought together hundreds of top bankers, investors, founders, and tech executives to discuss the sector’s key trends and developments. The insights below are drawn from interviews and panels with conference attendees.
Global M&A value rose steadily in 2024, driven by a surge in billion-dollar-plus deals. Tech megadeals led the way, with 16 transactions topping $5 billion — more than any other sector.
Last year’s growth was supported by healthy private sector balance sheets, expansive fiscal policy, and renewed appetite from strategic buyers. Still, slower-than-expected rate cuts and rising antitrust scrutiny created some friction.
At this year’s Private Growth Conference, dealmakers struck a tone of cautious optimism. Both sponsors and strategics are eager to transact, and with the right conditions, many expect activity to pick up. The question is whether recent volatility will get in the way.
Cautious Optimism, Even as Tariff Uncertainty Lingers
“I think everybody, as they entered 2025, was hopeful the environment would be strong, both on the equity side for IPOs and on the M&A side,” said Stefani Silverstein, Co-Head of Global TMT Investment Banking at Jefferies. “On the M&A side, we’ve seen that play out. There’s been strong momentum. Deal volume has kept pace with last year, but the number of deals has increased.”
Tech M&A deal volume rose 4.8% in Q1 from Q4 2024, reaching 1,145 deals. That’s a 22.2% increase from the same quarter last year. However, much of that activity came before the tariff announcements in March, which roiled public markets and private sector confidence.
“There still isn’t a lot of data [on tariffs’ impact]. . . but there are a number of processes that were close to signing where it’s still very much on track,” Silverstein said. “I think, in the cases that have gone cold or been cut short, financing has become a bit more challenging.”
The tariff outlook remains uncertain, with potential exemptions by product or trade partner still on the table. But the lack of clarity has many business leaders in a wait-and-see posture, raising the risk of slower deal activity ahead.
Jon Gegenheimer, Managing Director in Technology Investment Banking at Jefferies, shared a similar view.
“There’s no doubt that the recent tariff news has been disruptive to the point of an arrest of the market,” he said. “Decision makers have shifted right back into a wait-and-see mode, with a lot of people thinking about late summer, Labor Day, that sort of time frame for potentially a restoration of M&A activity in tech.”
Both Gegenheimer and Silverstein noted that more steadiness in the news cycle would help dealmakers better forecast demand and move forward with confidence.
Dealmakers Watch as Antitrust Tone Starts to Shift
Beyond tariffs, antitrust headwinds remain top of mind. Under President Biden, federal agencies pursued dozens of cases against major tech firms, leading several companies to abandon planned mergers.
“For years, the major tech companies moved into strategic segments via acquisition, but that window is essentially shut for the time being because of the regulatory scrutiny,” said Gaurav Kittur, Global Co-Head of Internet Investment Banking at Jefferies, at the time.
Entering 2025, it wasn’t yet clear how President Trump would handle antitrust enforcement. While many expected a lighter touch, members of his administration have also expressed concerns about big tech’s impact on competition.
“You also have individuals who’ve publicly called for more freedom in M&A,” said Jon Gegenheimer, “but at the same time, endorsed novel antitrust theories. Those statements are at odds.”
Still, after Capital One’s $35 billion acquisition of Discover received the green light, dealmakers are hopeful the regulatory chill is beginning to lift.
“There’s a view that we may now be in a more open environment,” Kittur said. “And as a result, we’ll probably see more of the large tech players actively pursue the areas of growth they want to acquire into.”
Strong Fundamentals and Narrowing Spreads
Many of the ingredients for strong dealmaking are in place: private equity has dry powder and a renewed risk appetite; a strong cohort of private companies is waiting in the wings; and more strategic buyers are at the table than we’ve seen in years.
So what needs to happen for deal activity to pick up in the coming months?
First, dealmakers need to regain confidence in the markets.
“Ultimately, investor and CEO confidence is what drives M&A activity,” said Ron Eliasek, Chairman of Global TMT Investment Banking at Jefferies. “We think this volatility is short term, and we’re still expecting a busy back half of the year. But when you see that volatility on your screen every day, it chips away at confidence.”
Second, the gap between buyer and seller expectations needs to keep narrowing. Valuation dislocation remains one of the biggest hurdles — especially for venture-backed companies.
“The bid-ask spreads have narrowed year after year. They’ve narrowed again,” said Evan Osheroff, Managing Director in Software Investment Banking at Jefferies. “Business health is actually strong. But if you thought your valuation was X two weeks ago — or two months ago — you’re not suddenly going to accept five times revenue today.”
For now, optimism is cautious but palpable. Deal pacing may be uneven today, but most expect steady transaction activity in the back half of the year.
“Investors are still looking for good opportunities, and what surprised me at this event over the past couple of days is how pervasive that sentiment is,” said Raphael Bejarano, Co-Head of Global Investment Banking at Jefferies. “Despite all the background noise, investors are here. They’re focused on finding the best companies, understanding them, and identifying angles through which to invest.”
