Views on the trajectory of equity markets vary widely, but most agree that today’s conditions are truly unprecedented.
Artificial intelligence is driving record levels of investment and capital expenditure, tariff policies are reshaping global trade, and a prolonged era of near-zero rates — followed by the sharpest inflation surge in decades — has left investors divided on the future course of monetary policy.
Few are better positioned to weigh in than Paul Singer, Founder and co-CEO of Elliott Management, recognized as one of the world’s most prominent hedge fund managers for decades. Drawing on that experience, Singer shared his views on today’s conditions and how investors might navigate them with the Jefferies team at TechTrek, the firm’s annual tech investor conference in Tel Aviv.
The following remarks have been edited lightly for clarity.
How High Valuations and Political Intervention are Shaping Equity Markets
Singer, who launched his first investment firm in 1977, views markets through decades of experience. Having lived through several major bear and bull markets, even he says today’s conditions are extraordinary.
“Right now, the near-term risks are unusual. Valuations may or may not trigger a melt-up or a meltdown, but history tells us today’s valuations point to low forward returns,” he explained. Singer noted that U.S. equity valuations — especially in the tech sector — are among the most drastic on record.1
Singer cautioned that many investors believe President Trump will do whatever it takes to prevent a bear market, pointing to the post-Liberation Day tariff rollback as an example. “That belief allows valuations to stretch to even greater extremes,” he said.2
This push and pull — between the president’s efforts to support markets and investors’ belief that such support makes them indestructible — creates a uniquely difficult market to predict.
Singer Urges Caution Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Looking ahead, Singer pointed to three themes he sees shaping global equity markets: artificial intelligence, inflation, and tariffs.
“It’s true that artificial intelligence is an immediate and powerful transforming force. But in some businesses, there are still kinks to be ironed out,” Singer said. Investors are in an “I believe” mode when it comes to the technology, and he argues that a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted.
On inflation, Singer warned it may be too soon to assume the worst is over. “Another burst of inflation is a significant possibility,” he said. “The 2021 surge was comparable to the bursts — plural — of the 1970s. Back then, we learned that inflation is rarely one and done.”
Finally, on tariffs, Singer noted that current policies are likely to raise prices and squeeze margins, even if they address trade imbalances. “The president believes these imbalances are important to correct,” he said. Reflecting concerns with a range of political uncertainties and economic risks, Singer warned, “I do think conditions for a possible bear market are now in place.”
“Our debt, fiscal policy, and monetary policy are unusual, so my firm is operating with the highest degree of prudence,” Singer said. “I think investors of my generation — those who’ve lived through multiple bear markets — know to be cautious right now.”
Singer has built his career challenging prevailing market sentiment. His message today is that no condition is permanently sustainable — whether it’s the rise of AI, stretched equity valuations, or the current mix of monetary and trade policies. For investors, he argues, caution is a wiser path than overconfidence.
For more from TechTrek — including interviews with top founders, executives, and investors like Paul Singer — visit Jefferies Insights.
