For investors, the key questions are how today’s instability may ripple through the world economy — and whether the opportunities are strong enough to outweigh the risks.
Today, geopolitics may be shaping global markets more than at any point in decades. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have fueled inflation, while shifting monetary and trade policies are reshaping economic activity across borders.[1][2]
Bill Ackman, Founder of Pershing Square Management, is uniquely well-positioned to weigh in. A widely recognized voice in investing and global affairs, he sat down with Jefferies to share his perspective on world markets, U.S. growth drivers, Israel, and more.
The following remarks have been edited lightly for clarity.
How Defense Spending Could Bolster the Global Economy
A seasoned international investor, Ackman brings a sharp view of the opportunities and risks shaping global markets. He told Jefferies that while conflict is a near-term risk, today’s investments in deterrence could position the global economy to thrive in the long run.
“The biggest concern today is geopolitical risk. But the actors who’ve launched wars — Russia in Ukraine, Hamas and Hezbollah in Israel — are not in a better place,” Ackman said. These outcomes, he suggested, may discourage others from provoking future conflicts.
“The best outcome of today’s geopolitical environment is the investment in deterrence and defense. I think we’ll see more of that globally,” he said.
Global defense spending reached a record in 2024 as countries responded to a deteriorating security environment. This spending may carry a two-fold benefit for the global economy: improving geopolitical stability over time while supporting infrastructure and R&D investment today.
The Intersection of the AI Boom & Pro-Business Policy Agenda
Beyond geopolitical risk, Ackman sees powerful growth engines in the US economy, which in turn drives global advancement. He points to two in particular: the AI boom and a pro-business policy environment.
“The biggest driver of global markets is the AI revolution,” he said. “I’ve never seen capex numbers like this. Trillions of dollars are pouring into our economy.”
On policy, Ackman highlighted several tailwinds: “We have the infrastructure bill, which is only starting to be spent. We have a new tax regime that’s creating economic incentives. And we have a deregulation agenda.”
The 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act provides $1.2 trillion in spending, an effort widely expected to spur economic opportunity in the years ahead. As Ackman notes, this investment is rolling out alongside an ambitious deregulatory push from the current administration.
“These forces are going to lift confidence, and they make me bullish on America,” he said.
Why Ackman Eyes Enduring Value in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange
The conversation closed on Israel, where Ackman has invested a nearly 5% stake in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). Owning an exchange, he explained, is a way to invest in the success of a country as a whole. His stake in the TASE reflects his broader confidence in Israel’s trajectory.
“An exchange is basically a royalty on a country’s success. It thrives as more companies list, market cap grows, and economic activity increases,” he said. “It’s the perfect way to make a long-term bet on a country.”
Ackman noted that the Israel of his parents’ generation is very different from the country today. What once was considered a destination for philanthropy, as opposed to strategic investment, has grown into one of the world’s strongest startup and venture capital ecosystems, with the highest number of unicorns per capita worldwide.
“When I invested in the exchange, the whole thing was valued at $500 million. It just felt like the wrong number,” he said. “My only regret is that I didn’t buy more.”
For more from TechTrek — including interviews with top founders, executives, and investors like Bill Ackman — visit Jefferies Insights.
[1] https://www.bcg.com/capabilities/international-business/navigating-international-trade/what-is-a-tariff?utm_source=search&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=geopolitics&utm_description=paid&utm_topic=tariffs&utm_geo=global&utm_content=dsa_explainer&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22423918029&gbraid=0AAAAACKyBhqyT_pBJ4oJv2aeGWqQPF6nI&gclid=Cj0KCQjwl5jHBhDHARIsAB0Yqjw8ZhHVWT4fFOmL6zEKKggnBG1c6fYs-BNqVKvIgYzTJuGk_A2_iZUaAhf1EALw_wcB
[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988323005972
