Abhinav Sinha

Abhinav Sinha is a research analyst covering the India real estate sector and equity strategy. He has over 16 years of sell-side research experience.

What I am Known For

• Strategy
  – Though-provoking, in-depth and topical analysis of multiple issues in the Indian equity market, such as macro, policy, politics, valuations and market movements in the regional context.
  – A theme-based investing approach, including ideas such as the housing chain, capex uptick, rural vs. urban outlooks, rise of financial savings and CEO transitions, among others.
  – Integration of top-down themes into actionable stock ideas and sector weightings.
• Real Estate
  – One of the very few analysts covering Indian property space continuously since 2007.
  – Conviction call, much ahead of street, for a turn in India’s Housing Cycle in late 2020.
  – Known for identifying consolidation as being the key sector theme even when property sector and stocks were going through a deep cyclical downturn.
  – Strong view on promoters, company strategies and its impact on shareholder returns.

How I am Different

Strategy

Housing cycle: Our call of the strong turnaround in Housing cycle being resilient in the face of rising interest rates is playing out.

Domestic eco vs. exporters: Housing and rising corporate capex favours domestic cyclicals. Maintained pref. over IT through the year.

Foreign flows: Flagged possibility of uptick in foreign flows early in 2023 with India positioning light and valuations improved.

Rural strength: Pre-election spending to support rural, despite El-Nino concerns.
Other differentiated themes: CEO transitions impact on stocks; Goods export a worry.

Real Estate

Strong view on the Housing cycle: Maintained resilience and durability of housing cycle despite rising rates with a view that price hikes are accelerating and likely to be sticky.

Clear preference for resi over office / REIT: Our view on offices is clear that sustainable lease income upside is sometime away and continue to prefer residential.

Consolidation: View that the consolidation in residential will continue despite upcycle is playing out with financing constraints the key differentiating factor.

Other differentiated work: Access to companies such as Birla Estates, Godrej Industries on property theme. Our proprietary work on sector such as affordability indicator and market share gain for listed space, among others.