Commentaries & Views

Jefferies Analysts, Strategists and Economists provide real-time thought leadership across the global financial markets, offering insights and new ideas for or clients on a range of topics, including market strategy, economics, equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange.

What's Up in A&D

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, reviews the 2020 outlook and the recent addition of LHX to the Franchise Pick list.

January 9, 2020

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that after returning 10% in Q4 and posting its 11th best-return at 25.5%, the R2 is within 6% of our 1750 target and thus we think the "pause that refreshes" is needed.

January 9, 2020

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2020 Consumer Outlook

Jefferies' U.S. Consumer team offers its top picks and three consumer themes for 2020. They include: Size, scale and tech; loyalty and new business models; value over core and discretionary vs. staples.

January 9, 2020

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Opining from the Office - Franchise Picks ENR, GNTX, LHX, LOW

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses recent highlights. Topics include: Jefferies Franchise Pick list outperformed the S&P 500 by 340bps in 2019 and has beaten the index by 1600bps since inception in 2013.

January 8, 2020

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IAC / InterActiveCorp - Next-Man Up Mentality

Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Internet, Software and Cloud likes IAC longer term, but in the next 3-6 months expects a range-bound stock.

December 18, 2019

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Jefferies Alternative Protein Summit – Key Takeaways

Simon Powell, Global Head of Thematic Research for Jefferies, discusses themes from The Great Protein Shake-Up and highlights takeaways from Jefferies Alternative Protein Summit.

December 16, 2019

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AWS Heavy Weight Champ But Challengers Ready

Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Internet, Software and Cloud in his highlights from our recent Public Cloud Summit says that AMZN is the clear heavyweight belt holder but MSFT is a viable #2 and GCP is becoming a challenger.

December 10, 2019

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Opining from the Office – ISM Manufacturing, ENR, CLH

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses recent highlights. Topics include: November ISM Manufacturing disappointed again, but cyclical groups only need the change to get less bad for better performance, they don't necessarily need full-fledged improvement. Kevin Grundy took another look at ENR and noted that shares trade six turns below peers despite what's now comparable sales growth & margins. Hamzah Mazari initiated coverage of CLH at Underperform.

December 5, 2019

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Mo Brands, Mo Problems? A Look into the 90s Retro Cycle

Janine Stichter, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, discusses her note analyzing the streetwear/retro cycles, with data suggesting both are now past peak. Data is most positive for ZUMZ and GES, and most negative for URBN/FL.

December 4, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: An Inflationary Surprise?

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says the consequences of three unrelated events have the potential to upset the consensus view of a low inflation or deflationary world: An outbreak of African Swine Fever in China, a pick-up in FAI approvals in China and the Fed expanding its balance sheet again. Buying a commodity equity hedge against inflation is very cheap.

November 27, 2019

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Addicted to Gaming

Simon Powell, Global Head of Thematic Research for Jefferies, says addiction to gaming is starting to emerge as a potential issue. The WHO recently classified Gaming Disorder as a disease, and various governments have started to examine user habits.

November 27, 2019

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Japan 2020: The Cycle will Turn

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, recently upgraded Japan to Bullish from Modestly Bullish. We expect the TOPIX to advance to 2000 by the end of 2020. Japan faced a series of rolling macro shocks and idiosyncratic risks that are unlikely to be repeated in 2020.

November 26, 2019

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Opining From the Office – Inventory Destocking & Value Stocks

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses Jefferies top value picks in recent reports including Franchise Pick ERI, GES, FBHS, VAC and SYF.

November 21, 2019

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, dives into small vs. large and sees that smaller has been better and continues. Earnings may have found a floor in Q3 and will be better in '20. The "new new" is that interest rates have ticked up and that creates a better back drop for small vs. large.

November 12, 2019

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Texas Instruments 4Q Outlook

Mark Lipacis, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Semiconductors, highlights his recent note TXN 4Q Outlook: Negative Macro Foreshadow, or Merely a Catch-up to Peers?

November 10, 2019

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Jefferies Healthcare Temperature Check

The Jefferies Healthcare Temperature Check is based on responses from over 500 senior leaders within the healthcare sector, from major investors to CEOs, and is the largest survey of its type. The report assesses the key themes in Healthcare and presents an overview of what senior sector figures predict for 2020.

November 20, 2019

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Opining from the Office – Millennial Homebuyers, Cyclicals, HUN

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses recent highlights. Topics include: S&P earnings growth is likely to inflect back up to average levels. Jefferies Research Team analyzed housing permit data in two of the fastest growing MSAs and found that a greater percentage of permits are being filed 30-plus miles outside of the city center as builders adjust to affordability demands.

November 6, 2019

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U.S.: The Case for A Bear Steepening (III) And 1966-67

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says the U.S. equity market has begun to break out helped by a strong U.S. 3Q earnings season. At the same time the U.S. yield curve has steepened aided by a plunge in short-term rates. We revisit the slowdown of 1966-67 as the one example when the U.S. economy did not go into recession despite an inverted yield curve.

November 6, 2019

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Wayfair's Opportunity in Europe

Jonathan Matuszewski, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Hardline Retail, discusses Wayfair's opportunity in Europe. He says our assessment of the competitive landscape, European consumer survey, and web scrapes raise our confidence in a path to profits abroad, driven by scale materializing sooner than investors think and resulting leverage.

November 6, 2019

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Stay Selective in Software

Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Internet, Software and Cloud highlights our recently launched Software Playbook. He says while we are fundamentally positive, we are cautioning clients to be very selective given elevated multiples.

November 5, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: Climbing the Proverbial Wall of Worry

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says risk aversion is rife. However, economic data is beginning to turn ‘less bad’ while positioning has seen further inflows into global money market funds and bonds since the start of 4Q.

November 5, 2019

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What's Up in A&D

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, recaps recent earnings from large cap defense.

November 1, 2019

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RingCentral - RNG/AVYA Partnership

Samad Samana, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Software, says RNG's shares have soared more than 25% since the Avaya news. Despite the move, we believe the potential remains under-appreciated. Through a combination of organic growth and contribution from Avaya, we believe RingCentral's path to more than $2B is much clearer.

November 4, 2019

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