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Commentaries & Views

Jefferies Analysts, Strategists and Economists provide real-time thought leadership across the global financial markets, offering insights and new ideas for or clients on a range of topics, including market strategy, economics, equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange.

2019 Global Macro Economic Landscape

David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist for Jefferies, continues his discussion of three important stories as they evolve in 2019.

October 10, 2019

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Japan: Investment Themes Running Into 4Q

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, highlights a selection of our Japan macromicro baskets with relevant catalysts.

October 4, 2019

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Opining From the Office -3Q Revisions, Beer Survey, AEO, VRTX

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses Jefferies Analysts’ view that recent economic data is troughing and that leading indicators and the potential for restocking suggest likely improvement ahead.

October 3, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: It’s The Late 1990s All Over Again

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, describes how the current environment has eerily similar characteristics to the late 1990s when post the Asian crisis, the Fed eased policy at the same time as Nasdaq melted up.

October 2, 2019

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Alternative Meats: A New Industry Emergence

Simon Powell, Global Head of Thematic Research for Jefferies, discusses how alternative meat is seen as a disruptor of the global meat industry.

October 2, 2019

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2Q19 Wrap - Table Set for Restock

Mark Lipacis, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Semiconductors, discusses three takeaways: Estimate revisions have stabilized, semis appear to be shipping below consumption, and visibility is expcted to improve as semi days of inventory decline.

September 26, 2019

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Green Dot Corp. - Slowing Core Growth Results in Ongoing Risks - D/G to Hold

John Hecht, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Specialty Finance, says the core business has been showing little growth for some time; and BaaS not helping enough to re-accelerate.

September 26, 2019

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Just Tap It In: Sizing the Contactless Payments Opportunity

Trevor Williams, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Payments, Processors & IT Services, looks at the potential for consumer adoption of contactless payments in the US, and the estimated impact on V and MA.

September 24, 2019

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Jefdata Monthly Minute – September 2019

Richard Carbone, Jefferies Data Strategist discusses a recent data lawsuit ruling that public data provided by users belongs to users.

September 23, 2019

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FOMC Update – September 17-18, 2019

Ward McCarthy, Chief Financial Economist for Jefferies responds to the September 17-18, 2019, FOMC Meeting.

September 20, 2019

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Jefferies 2019 Home Retail Summit – Key Takeaways

Jonathan Matuszewski, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Hardline Retail, highlights Jefferies Home Retail Summit saying that the positive tone is an encouraging read on the U.S. consumer, and conversations with retailers and suppliers reinforce our Buy ratings on Wayfair and Floor & Décor.

September 20, 2019

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Opining From the Office - Cyclicals, HAS, MAS, ATVI

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, says that cyclical groups tend to act better in the final four months of the year than the first eight.

September 19, 2019

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What's Up in A&D

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, highlights two 'big data' pieces titled What's Up In the Skies and At Your IT Service.

September 19, 2019

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Masco - Re-rate Warranted with Differentiated Portfolio

Phil Ng, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Building Products & Construction Materials, says based on our analysis of MAS's refocused portfolio following its asset sales, it has the highest exposure to R&R, small ticket, and branded products, which positions the company for consistent growth and should be one of the most defensive names in the group.

September 19, 2019

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SWERVE Interview with Co-Founder and CEO Eric Posner

Randy Konik, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Lifestyle & Growth Platforms, met with SWERVE CEO Eric Posner at Jefferies 2019 Fitness Summit to discuss SWERVE Fitness, a boutique fitness company offering 45-minute HIIT rhythm cycling classes broken into three teams.

September 13, 2019

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Rising Competitive Risk in Hard Seltzers, Downgrade SAM

Kevin Grundy, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Household Products and Beverages summarizes our recently published hard seltzer survey and downgrade of SAM, which points to potential for greater competitive intensity in the category.

September 6, 2019

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Opining From the Office -ISM, SAM D/G, BC U/G, Weather

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, highlights research from the week and discusses Sub-50 readings for the ISM that have driven 6M S&P returns of +10% outside of recessions.

September 6, 2019

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U.S.: Investment Themes Running into 4Q19

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that despite the S&P 500 trading close to its record high, pronounced risk aversion has forced investors into money market funds and government bonds.

September 4, 2019

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Dividends - A Theme for All Seasons

Desh Peramunetilleke, Global Microstrategist for Jefferies, highlights the importance of dividends in Asia and introduces our Global Dividend Watch.

September 3, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: Trump 2020, Xi 2021

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says the fact that the fractious and internecine U.S.-China trade dispute has no official ‘end-date’, is causing both corporates and investors to suffer from fatigue.

September 2, 2019

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says recent economic data along with earnings from some retailers point to a solid economy with low probability of recession.

August 22, 2019

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Opining From the Office - Philly Fed, Housing, FND, OC

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses how Jefferies strategists are not calling for a U.S. recession, the Philly Fed outlook, and real estate data findings.

August 22, 2019

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The Millennial's New Clothes: Apparel Rental Deep Dive

Janine Stichter, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, highlights implications for apparel retailers, especially URBN, which recently launched its own inhouse rental platform called Nuuly.

August 21, 2019

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Jefdata Monthly Minute – August 2019

Richard Carbone, Jefferies Data Strategist discusses Revisiting the Quantifying Strategy Survey.

August 16, 2019

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Jefferies 2019 Industrials Conference – Key Takeaways

Jefferies Industrial Analysts present their key takeaways from the conference which was held August 6-8 in New York.

August 13, 2019

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Bracing for a CO2 Recession in 2020

Philippe Houchois, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Autos, summarizes views on the main risks from CO2 regulation coming into force next year in Europe.

August 13, 2019

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What's Up in A&D

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, presents highlights from deep dive into the UTX defense business and potential technology synergies from the RTN and UTX proposed Merger of Equals.

August 13, 2019

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Opining From the Office - Mats/Industrials, Tariffs, VIX

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses the VIX and how the S&P tends to rally in the month following large VIX spikes.

August 8, 2019

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Jefferies Lens Into Pricing & Discounts

Janine Stichter, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Department Stores & Specialty Softlines, identifies inflections in pricing-promos using more than four years of data.

July 31, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: The Reach and Over-Reach for Yield

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that with the Fed cut, the reach for yield has gone into overdrive with MSCI All World Index attempting to make a new high.

July 30, 2019

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Opining from the Office - Value, Semis, JefData Highlights

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses recent report highlights including perspectives on the bottoming of lead indicators, the cheapness of value stocks and Fed rate cuts all should provide tailwinds for some lagging groups.

July 29, 2019

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U.S.: Risk Free Return

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, explains that the self-reinforcing trend in lower yields has not been accompanied by a marked shift in equity fund flows or factor returns.

July 28, 2019

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Big Gifting TAM For Wayfair

Jonathan Matuszewski, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Hardline Retail, says that Wayfair (W) is uniquely positioned to succeed in the attractive registry market.

July 25, 2019

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Analog Renaissance 2.0

Mark Lipacis, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Semiconductors, says consolidation is better than we thought, big get bigger and to expect more M&A.

July 19, 2019

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that small has lagged large by over 1500 basis points over the last 12 months and the underperformance is now below the one-standard deviation line.

July 10, 2019

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Tech Supply Chain & Chinese Telcos Under Huawei Export Ban

Edison Lee, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – China Telecom, walks investors through the implications of the Huawei export ban for China's 5G development and China telcos' capex.

June 27, 2019

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Global Asset Allocation: Risk Aversion is Rife

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that worries over a U.S. recession have coincided with fears over the U.S.-China trade dispute.

June 27, 2019

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, discusses how '95 cuts are most similar to today with no recession on horizon and says small delivers below average performance and lags large, slower growth & value beat fastest & growth, quality and size mattered.

June 26, 2019

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Opining from the Office - AAII Bull/Bear, Ag Cycle, Consumer Conference

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses AAII sentiment, upgrades of DE & AGCO, and how companies cited poor weather at Consumer Conference, but retail tends to bounce after wet/cool springs.

June 26, 2019

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China Smartphone & SaaS Outlook

Rex Wu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – China Technology, provides highlights from his first outlook on the China Smartphone and Software-as-a-Service sectors.

June 25, 2019

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Introduction to Microstrategy: Navigating Growth Headwinds

Desh Peramunetilleke, Global Microstrategist, introduces our Microstrategy product and summarizes our recent Style watch report on the Asia Pacific region.

June 25, 2019

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U.S. and India: Internet and Payment System Growth Only Beginning

Sean Darby, Global Equity Strategist for Jefferies, says that although Vietnam is lauded as a beneficiary of the U.S.- China trade dispute, India on many levels is a natural winner.

June 25, 2019

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Deere and AGCO Upgrades

Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Machinery, upgraded DE and AGCO from HOLD to BUY given improved large ag fundamentals and says that higher demand outlook along with weather issues should better balance the global crop and protein industries leading to higher prices over the next 2-3 years.

June 25, 2019

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Antitrust Scrutiny of Big Tech

Brent Thill, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Internet provides a recap of a recent expert call discussing the implications of increased antitrust scrutiny of big tech companies.

June 25, 2019

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PLNT Interview with CEO Chris Rondeau

Randy Konik, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Lifestyle & Growth Platforms interviews PLNT CEO and remains convinced that fundamentals are robust and the runway for growth is long.

June 23, 2019

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Jefferies 2019 Consumer Conference – Key Takeaways

Jefferies Consumer Analysts, Randy Konik, David Katz and Chris Mandeville discuss company tone, investor sentiment, stocks and themes.

June 21, 2019

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What's Up in A&D

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Aerospace & Defense Electronics, highlights recent management meetings with HXL, OSI Systems and TGI and reviews key aspects of the RTN and UTX MoE.

June 14, 2019

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Opining from the Office - Rainy April Q's, HAS, U.S. Chemicals

T.J. Thornton, Jefferies Head of U.S. Equity Product Management, discusses how big snapbacks in the S&P following big declines bode well for future performance.

June 14, 2019

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Growing Every Which Way

David Katz, Jefferies Equity Research Analyst – Gaming, Leisure & Lodging, says that with the passage of Gaming expansion legislation in Illinois, there are a myriad of uncertainties for operators. However, the clearest positive outcomes are for CHDN.

June 13, 2019

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SMID Cap Thoughts & Observations

Steven DeSanctis, U.S. Equity Strategist for Jefferies, touches upon why small is lagging large. With U.S. economy showing signs of slowing, this is not good backdrop for small.

June 12, 2019

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Jefferies 2019 Global Healthcare Conference – Key Takeaways

Jefferies Healthcare Analysts discuss improving demand in Pharma Services, encouraging comments from HHC providers AMED/LHCG on reimbursement changes, increased confidence around GILD's HIV franchise and continued limited interest in large-cap Spec Pharma.

June 11, 2019

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Jefferies 2019 Global Healthcare Conference – Key Takeaways

Jared Holz, Jefferies Healthcare Strategist, says investors continue to have an overall positive view towards the sector despite ongoing macro related and policy shifts including drug pricing changes.

June 11, 2019

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