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Aerospace & Defense Electronics – C919 Deep Dive: Production Hurdles Imply 1/Month Impact to Boeing/Airbus through 2030 

Jefferies examined the implications for Airbus and Boeing deliveries to China following the certification of COMAC’s C919 plane. Although COMAC plans to increase production to 150 C919s per year by middecade, we view this as unlikely given U.S. control of 60% of the C919 supply chain. In addition, there is a history of certification delays with a 14 year-time-to-certification as well as an order book of 303 C919s, a limiting factor to production rates. We anticipate COMAC ramping up more slowly, producing 25 C919s per year by 2030 and 50 per year by 2040, indicating 5% of deliveries on average from ’22-’31 and 8% from ’22-’41. Our analysis highlighted that each potential 1/month hit to MAX sales in 2025 is $0.30 to EPS and $55 Million to free cash flow for Boeing. 

— Sheila Kahyaoglu, Aerospace & Defense