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Healthcare – COVID-Testing Deep Dive: 500 Million Tests in U.S. Alone Could Prove Conservative

Jefferies published a note examining the potential market size for COVID-19 testing as the world begins to return to a new normal. The Global Healthcare Research Team took a top-down approach to estimating the total test capacity need and associated costs in order for the U.S. to roll-out a national test/trace/track program. Based on their analysis, the U.S. will need 400-700 million tests for just this first COVID season, ~10x current capacity. Using these base case assumptions, this translates to $10-16 billion total available market for test suppliers and another $40-60 billion for lab operators. Jefferies sees ABT, DHR, HOLX and TMO as best positioned to benefit on the test side, while DGX and LH are best positioned on the lab operator side.

Jefferies Global Healthcare Research Team